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Conditional Probability

Python notebook: https://github.com/daviskregers/data-science-recap/blob/main/08-conditional-probability.ipynb

  • If I have two events that depend on each other, what's the probability that both will occur?
  • Notation: \(P(A, B)\) is the probability of A and B both occuring
  • \(P(B|A)\) - probability of B given that A has occurred.
\[P(B|A) = \frac{P(A,B)}{P(A)}\]

Example

  • I give my students two tests. 60% of my students passed both tests, but the first test was easier. 80% passed that one. What percentage of students who passed the first test also the second one?

  • A - passing the first test, B - passing the second test

  • So we are asking for \(P(B|A)\) - the probability of B given A
  • \(P(B|A) = \frac{P(A,B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.6}{0.8} = 0.75\)
  • 75% of students who passed the first test passed the second as well.